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  • LNG ADPs 2018-20: Surplus vs Strategy

    The next three years will see 30+ mt annual firm increases in LNG capacity and a large supply overhang.  Only major utilisation of spare regasification capacity in China and Europe can absorb…

  • Global LNG: Tax and Trade?

    2016 was a turning-point in a 70-year drive to remove global trade barriers. After several years of accelerating undercurrents against global trade, new leaders were elected in free-trade champions with clear mandates to…

  • A Yuletide review of energy

    Yule means wheel and the mid-winter start of a new cycle. 2016 is drawing to a close and energy markets approach normalcy again. After a tumultuous period of contracting business it is therefore natural…

  • Oil price cycles can be identified and should be used in planning

    Business cycles have always fascinated human minds, and with the decline in oil prices interest in cycle theory has again surged.  The key questions are when and how high prices will rise…

  • “Time to talk ” – Oil prices 2016-2018

    The December fall in global crude oil prices from 50 dollars to below 40 USD/Bbl, should it persist at this level, is more important than the fall from 100 dollars in 2014. …

  • Is there relief for LNG producers in coming contract price reviews? The case of Peru LNG

    International LNG contracts fall into groups mirroring the market conditions at the time they were signed. Oversupply drove the oil-to-LNG price multiplier (from USD/Bbl to USD/MMBtu) below 0.04 in 2003, but shortage…

  • Choosing your shade of green

    “It’s not easy being green”, a frustrated Kermit the frog famously sang back in 1994.  After deep reflection he nevertheless concluded “… but I think it is what I want to be.”…

  • An energy “liquidity trap” – challenges and opportunities

    Old ideas can be surprisingly powerful when used in new or different areas. This is the case of the “liquidity trap” business dilemma of Keynesian economics.  The liquidity trap implies that lower prices…

  • LNG prices and lateral thinking

    Energy Perspectives recently did a 15-year forecast of Asian LNG prices for a client investment case.  Certainly challenging, given the state of energy markets, oil prices, uncertainty of demand and an onslaught of…

  • Panama Canal Charges for LNG and a Brave New World of Global Gas

    After two years of discussions and lobbying by users, the Panama Canal Administration last week set the tariff schedule for LNG vessel passage.  For the 175,000m3 LNG “PanaMax” vessel, the round-trip cost…

  • US shale oil contraction – Hard evidence for strategy and OPEC’s June 5 meeting

    Crude oil prices have slowly increased over the past couple of months.  The availability of solid US shale oil production data has been lacking, and many forecasts have maintained the incredible resilience of US…

  • Has OPEC killed the shale oil Troll?

    Another decline in the US oil rig count was reported on 17 April 2015 by BakerHughes, 26 rigs down. Overall, oil rig count is down by more than 50% since December, to 734.…

  • Japan Crude Coctail forever?

    Asian interest in breaking the traditional link between LNG import prices and crude oil has been intense for several years. Initiatives to establish regional hubs and spot price indexes have until now…

  • US shale oil could drop by 0.5 mill. Bbls/day in 2015

    At current oil prices, there is momentum for stabilization and then contraction of US shale oil production through 2015 and beyond. The full output reduction reflecting the new price level is estimated…

  • Crude oil prices 2015 at 35 USD/Bbl – An avoidable worst-case scenario

    This 23 December 2014 post (republished 23.January 2015 due to system restore) is a follow-up of our November comments on OPEC thinking and market strategy (its timestamp  a republish due to a . …